Newsletter No. 25 For 2010 From The NZ Climate Realists Against the ETS

Greetings Climate Realists

Activists, Neil & Esther Henderson

I hope you are all well and not getting washed out by the rain which is currently pelting the East Coast of the North Island and Eastern Bay of Plenty.
We used to live on a metal road; now what’s left of it is little more than a dirt (I should say mud) track. Some sunshine would be quite welcome.
Congratulations to all the quick newsletter readers who scored a copy of  Air Con- the entire box was spoken for within a couple of hours,necessitating an urgent SOS to Heidi Wishart who very graciously managed to find another box to send our way.
It is very generous indeed of the Wisharts to donate these books so when you’ve read your free copy- how about passing it along to someone else who needs to read it?
Thanks also to the many who ahve kindly donated toward postage costs.
Please note- all the books we had are now gone-  so if you want a copy of either the first edition or the latest updated (post Climategate) version visit:
Lots of reading this week- some good educational sites, and interesting links to follow up.
Happy reading,
all the best,
Esther
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From Prof Bob Carter:
This video contains excellent and interesting footage of the way in which the ice cores from Greenland are collected. Narrated by the Curator of the ice core collection (an interesting, and doubtless for him, sensitive point), it then moves to a devastatingly clear explanation of temperature change over the Holocene (last 10,000 years).
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Detailed Chronology of Late
Holocene Climatic Change
James S. Aber

The following detailed chronology of climatic and historic events is based primarily on Le Roy Ladurie (1971), Grove (1988), Savage (1995), Nesje and Dahl (2000), and other sources as noted.
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Opportunities to make a Climate Realist presence felt:
The two meetings advertised below are another example of the kind of conference Neil and I attended a few weeks ago. They are likely to be dominated by people who are convinced of the reality of AGW global warming, imminent sea level rises etc.
However now, while policies are being discussed, is the time for skeptics to get ‘out there’ and make their presence felt (and heard).
#1 The AmCham Energy Forum
Wed 25 August 2010- Auckland
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. Will it work?
What can we learn from the experience of similar schemes elsewhere?
Join us to hear a keynote address from Franz Litz, US climate change response strategy expert at the World Resources Institute. Franz will give an insight on lessons that have been learned from other international Emissions Trading Schemes. What have been the outcomes? Were these expected or unexpected? How might they be improved? Franz will then join our panel for an interactive discussion on the implications for New Zealand business.

Date: Wednesday 25 August 2010
Venue: Deloitte Centre, Level 18, 80 Queen Street, Auckland
Time: Registration 7.15am with breakfast
Presentations from 7.45am
Concludes 9.00am

Panelists:
Franz Litz, Senior Fellow, World Resources Institute
Charles Ewart
,
Lead Country Manager, Mobil Oil New Zealand
Simon Young, Managing Director, The Karo Group
Facilitated by Paul Callow, Partner, Corporate Finance, Deloitte
Ph: 09 309 9140   Fax: 09 309 1090 Email: Kathryn@amcham.co.nz
My correspondence with Barry Brill of the NZCSC:
Barry, is this something I could advertise on the Climate Realists network? Or is it kind of ‘exclusive’?
Esther – I think they welcome non-members who are prepared to pay. But I suspect the panel might hype the wonderful opportunities for carbon trading.


#2 Collision of Land Use, a one-day forum on a matter of importance –
23 August 2010- Massey University
The future of New Zealand deserves robust debate. Should it lie in perception, natural capital value or profit?  Will decisions made on the landscape be driven by emotion, science or economics? The basis for the discussion is valuing our ‘natural capital’ assets and could provide an insight into the way forward.
Want to find out more? Then register for this forum to be held on 23 August at AH1, Massey University, Palmerston North.
For further information, please contact Jacqueline Rowarth j.s.rowarth@massey.ac.nz
or for registration contact Sandra Dunkinson S.M.Dunkinson@massey.ac.nz

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ETS meeting with Nick- report from Auckland
About 70 people listened to a long spiel from Dr Smith on the necessity
for the ETS. The need is apparently based on Dr Smith’s quasi religious
belief in ‘the science’. Unfortunately the little science, namely
geology, to which he should have been exposed in the course of his civil
engineering degree appears to have escaped him. According to him the
world’s atmosphere was ‘toxic’ a mere 20 million years ago! If that is
as far as his science goes god help us.

Clearly he believes that ice core data supports him in his quasi
religious belief. Actually it does not. It shows that the carbon
dioxide tenor of the atmosphere follows climatic warming rather than the
reverse which is required to support his belief.

As he admitted to much surprise and laughter that his guru in matters
scientific is none other than Gareth Morgan!

He presents, as a persuader, a version of the hockey stick cruder even
that that of ‘Piltdown’ Mann. We may well accept, as most sceptics do,
that the world has warmed since the Little Ice Age a mere couple of
hundred years ago. However that warming has been spasmodic and
correlates poorly with the tenor of atmospheric carbon dioxide. He
neglects of course the total absence of correlation between carbon
dioxide and temperature for the remaining four and a half thousand
million years of the earth’s history.

He informs us that he is trained as a geotechnical engineer. It is a
pity that he did not absorb more of the principles. His departure to
politics is thus unlikely to be any great loss to engineering. It is a
pity though that politics has gained so little in the swap.

He referred frequently to risk management. It is such a pity that he
knows so little about it. Risk management is about putting numbers on
probabilities, costing those probabilities and discounting those costs
for the years ahead. A geotechnical engineer should know, for example,
that the probability of failure of an open pit slope is proportional to
the angle at which the slope is cut. The steeper the slope the less
waste to deal with but the greater the risk of slope failure. The
flatter the slope the more dirt that must be shifted but the less the
risk of slope failure. If the operation is to be continued over many
years the costs must be discounted too. A smart engineer comes to the
cheapest compromise. The same thinking should apply to any response to
climate change. Clearly it has not in this case as neither the
probabilities, the related costs or the time frame over which the costs
must be discounted, are known, or indeed even guessed at.

Roger

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Esther,
Here is an interesting and incisive question to ask Nick Smith or John Key at one or all of their numerous ETS meetings.
The Honourable
Nick Smith.
Sir,
At the point when New Zealand reaches the IPCC guidelines of 40% reduction of Carbon Dioxide from 1990 emission levels, (thats a reduction of  57% from today’s emission levels),  does your government have an ECONOMIC ANALYSIS which will forecast to us the economic effect,  that is the effect on everyday living of normal New Zealand citizens, of reaching and retaining these reductions, including the likely price of energy such as petrol, diesel and electricity AND including the cost level effect on all essential products needed for normal living as well as the effect on employment?
If there is such a report  – why is it not drawn to the attention of the public? If there is no such report, why not?
What do you think?
I think someone attending at everyone of Nick Smiths meetings should ask him this. It is not discussing the science after all.
Cheers
Geof. Mead
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Report from Whakatane:
Hi Neil and Esther,
My son and I attended a meeting in Whakatane with Rodney Hide speaking which was poorly attended (15) but very informative. Probably more advertising needed and calving had started.
The only reporter that was there was only interested in whether Whakatane, Tauranga and Rotorua would be next on the “super city” council agenda and then left.
Rodney went to the local radio station for a quick interview where they quickly steered the topic to “dancing with the stars”.
Lot of questions from those who attended, the main thrust was that ETS would be reviewed after the next election and possibly the only way to get it dumped was to split our votes next election, give your party vote to Act , so they could be up to at least 8 MPs then act could tip the balance and get ETS thrown out.
Cheers, Mark
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Don’t lie to me Nick Smith — 1
Richard Treadgold | July 24, 2010 | 2:59 pm
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Federated Farmers media release:
No Country for Farmers?
20 percent of New Zealand’s sheep and beef farms could be replaced by oxymoronic ‘carbon forestry’, if the ambitions of foreign owned carbon foresters and the Government are realised……
Politics at its best, well done to the communications team at FF Wellington, these are copies of FF media release, a rebuttal from forestry and the final word from NBR. Hamish

http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/node/556

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National’s view of the industry that has earned over 60% of NZ exports:
Hon David Cunliffe: When he said: “We don’t want to get overly concerned about it”—the sale of farmland—“if it’s just another cycle.”, did he mean he had no objection to “New Zealanders becoming tenants in their own country.”?
Hon BILL ENGLISH: No, I meant what I said. The fact is that New Zealand has always had an inflow of overseas investment into land in New Zealand, and it continued in the 9 years under the previous Labour Government. I was making the observation that sometimes we get a wave of overseas investment. People realise they cannot make money out of farming in New Zealand, and if they do not live it and love it, they end up selling and going away

Geoff
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Pastural Farming Climate Research
“-Now they are contradicting themselves-“

Dairy NZ is giving a series of workshops on livestock farming and greenhouse gases. They are delivering it on behalf of MAF so there is a fair amount of Government propaganda delivered. “We need an ETS or they won’t buy our produce ” sort of propaganda. On balance they did deliver it in a manner that accepted the widespread scepticism about global warming and the need for an ETS………….

Read the full newsletter at: http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/node/558
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The UN is considering reducing the number of countries involved in faltering international climate talks in an effort to push through a deal.
In a document published yesterday, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) outlined the idea among back-up plans if stalled talks fail to produce a successor to the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012………..
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The AA Editorial has spoken out against the ETS (again).
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The ETS Must be Dumped
Come to a Public Meeting to learn about the ETS and the damage it will do to New Zealand’s economy. No spin, just the facts.  Learn also about the backdowns that have already resulted from ACT’s campaign and ACT’s strategy going forward.
WARKWORTH – 9 August – 7.30 pm, The Bridgehouse Café, 16 Elizabeth Street, Warkworth – Rodney Hide and John Boscawen
TE KAUWHATA – 1 September – 7.30 pm, Waikare Golf Club, 66 Waerenga Road, Te Kauwhata
Put these dates in your diary – venues to be advised
Nelson – 10 August
Tauranga – 26 August 12 noon
Thames – 31 August 12 noon
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Climate Change- the bigger picture
These two links lead to thought-provoking material which suggests that there may be a much bigger agenda behind the world climate change alarmism.
We recognise that not everyone on this network is of any religious persuasion, also
that not everyone is convinced of the reality of chemtrails.
However we include these links as points which may be of considerable interest to some.
Everyone heard about the G8 and G20 political summits in Toronto, yet few knew that a global interfaith event paralleled the G8/G20. This event, titled the G8 World Religions Summit, brought together spiritual leaders from around the planet to work towards an interfaith approach to global governance. The following article on the G8 World Religions Summit, taken from first-hand experience, is the front article in a 41-page report on this important interfaith summit. It details the event and its intentions, giving you a birds-eye view regarding the spiritual side of globalization.
A pilot shoots a chemical plane from his cockpit: the video shows an aircraft that spread chemtrails over Canada from the nozzles. The footage is the irrefutable proof of a chemical and clandestine operation that a bold pilot offers to the public in order to demonstrate that chemtrails are real. The “smoke” we can see is neither a fuel dumping nor a contrail. The chemtrails, in fact, is iridescent too.
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Green inconsistencies:
# 1
On the Greens website there is a graph showing CO2 and temperature
changes over the last 500,000 years.

The graph is here:

http://www.greens.org.nz/node/18709

If you look very closely it shows (for the most part) temperature
increase preceding CO2 rises.  In other words the Greens are showing a
graph that clearly demonstrates temperature increase leading CO2
increase but they also claim increases in CO2 are causing global
warming.

The graph also shows no fewer than 4 occasions in the last 500,000
years when the temperature was as warm or warmer than today – must
have been all those cavemen in their SUVs.

******     *******    ******    ******    ******    ******    ******
# 2
So the Greens are still denying there was a Medieval Warm Period by
perpetuating the now discredited hockey stick graph.

See their version here: http://www.greens.org.nz/node/18710
Dave

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Greens Sticking It To Farmers

Press Release by David Garrett MP, ACT New Zealand
Thursday, July 29 2010

It appears that farmers have become the ‘whipping boy’ of New Zealand politics – first they are forced to bear the increased costs of the Government’s ETS, and now the Green Party wants them to have to beg for permission to farm their own land, ACT New Zealand Agriculture Spokesman David Garrett said today.
“Rather than promote environmentally sustainable methods of farming, the Greens Co-leader Russel Norman said in the House last night that farming ought to be a consented rather than a permitted activity – meaning farmers who can’t get a permit would be out of work on their own land,” Mr Garrett said.
“These attacks on famers are counter-productive.  Farming is the backbone of our country, with agricultural products accounting for more than half of New Zealand’s total exports.
“The heavy-handed, luddite type of approach that the Greens advocate is exactly the kind of bureaucratic regulation that stifles business, increases costs and sees us lose productive sectors of our economy to overseas competitors.
“Federated Famers recently organised an educational visit to a dairy farm in the Manawatu to educate MPs in the reality of dairy farming, and the practical problems they face with ever increasing regulation.  Representatives of all parties attended – except the Greens, who said they were ‘too busy’.
“ACT believes that protecting our environment is important – but Government and business should work together to find effective solutions that do not put people’s livelihoods at risk,” Mr Garrett said.

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Is there no end to the lengths that the UN will go to perpetuate the myth of GW?

http://whaleoil.gotcha.co.nz/2010/07/22/dumping-ground-for-left-wing-control-freaks-and-losers/

Alan Nicholson

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Hi Neil & Esther, I’m a couple of days late noticing this, but IMHO it’s always nice to see a believer in AGW admit that science is for scientists, policy is for politicians, and the IPCC has fouled its own nest.  A short excerpt (trying to respect FT’s constant reminders about copyright):

…you have to wonder why public opinion is failing of its own accord to demand action. The answer is not, I think, that voters on the whole are stupid – something many politicians believe rather too openly. In part, it is that climate science has trashed its own credibility.

Leading scientists have worked as activists rather than scholars, on the principle that the public needs to be scared and must not be troubled with complications. Uncertainties are suppressed, disagreements kept quiet, inconvenient truths set aside. The science is settled: that is all the public can handle.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change institutionalised the idea and the Climategate e-mails opened a window on the process. What was supposed to be a disinterested clearing-house for science to guide policy became, in part, a taxpayer-funded lobbying shop – and a notably incompetent one. The science was fitted to the case for action rather than the other way round. The public does not trust scientist-activists, and is right not to….


Strikes me as slightly odd, given NZ mass media’s determination to refer to the “Climategate” emails as “stolen” (& their dedication to finding AGW believers in academia to declare that those emails are the proceeds of criminal action), that the same media refer to the US defence / intel documents by Wikileaks as a “leak”.  No theft, no criminality, no lives put at risk, no double standard.  As they say in the Tui adverts…

best regards
m

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Hi  Again ,
The news keeps flooding in .  I hope you haven’t got it before .    6  taxpayers from  Washington  State  are sueing the State governor , Chris  Gregoire ,  to invalidate an order she has issued regarding climate change .  This is the second state I know of who has rebelled against Senate and Executive orders .
There must be something we can do to Key  and  Smith ???
Malcolm


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Hi there,
I am not very political, but I like the idea of sending a message to Smith and Key that they are losing massive numbers of votes over the ETS.
What better way than seeing a HUGE increase in the ACT Party membership?
I just joined tonight – cost me $20, and well worth it!
Cheers,
Mike L

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Keep it up folks.
I wrote you from Mexico [and US] but the message would not go through. Computers!
These two rather large countries are taking little notice[if any] of all this ETS and associated bull. In US the economy is the pits and people are very worried having lost out to their own consumerism and globalisation. Mexico just gets on with it, as it has for 4000 years; the recession is just a time in a few years.
Nick got a real blasting at Gore. He was rude and foolish…the opposition was huge. The politicians seeking party backing are getting none. National have been told that their seats in the south are goners. Roy was visibly shocked when told face to face of this FACT.
Not nice to come back to NZ and still find this foolish situation continuing.
Robin

I was informed by a gentleman who attended the Mosgiel ETS meeting on 26/7/10 that there were two
members of the Constabulary outside the meeting and two inside plus the occasional police car cruising by.
The gentleman asked if he would be allowed to take his protest sign inside but this was denied on the grounds that somebody might suffer an eye injury plus there might be a fire risk involved !. Quo Vadis New Zealand.
Report of the proceedings on the following site.
Regards,
Colin.

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Thanks Neil and Esther – good stuff.
AGW is a bit like religion.  I can’t prove there isn’t a god; theists can’t prove there is one – but get very peed off with me for even suggesting they can’t.   Faith, I guess.
I tried to ‘connect’ with James  Renwick of Niwa.  He implied that if I kept sending him stuff from people who didn’t agree with the Niwa ‘take’ he would stop talking to me.    Like I might give a stuff about that!
In September I’m going to a sort of ‘private’ Nat dinner where Nick Smith is going to speak.  I’ve suggested we have a discussion instead.
I shall ask for a ‘yes’ / ‘no’ answer to the following questions:
1.  Has Earth warmed over the past ten years?
2.  Have all oceans and seas risen?
3.  Have the ice caps reduced?
4.  Are polar bear numbers decreasing?
If he’s truthful, I’ll say no more  – and walk out.    If he isn’t,  I’ll throttle him  – and then walk out!
Kind regards
John OREWA
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hello Neil and Esther hope the farming is going ok. Have just been to the National party conference in Auckland. I came away very impressed with the quality of the ministers even though I don’t agree with some of the policies, but after hearing about the back flip on mining (which wasnt mentioned at the conference) I don’t know what games they are playing. There was a fair bit of opposition to the ETS among the delegates but it is very apparent that the govt won’t change its course. I think that what is needed is a party that is actually conservative and cares about the people. Maybe the small parties should get together to form one party with middle ground. Anyway I don’t see much hope for the country with this lot except that they will balance the books if they get a chance.
cheers Terry.

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just spent a month touring China – no clear air near their cities and food production on every square inch of it – very good food producers I believe – the north and west of the country was really lovely with clear air and more our style of place but the cities were half block visibilities – having said that the place was tidier than I thought it would be – it appears all the new roads are infilled with rubbish and plastic bags.
I wish NZ would realise what a tin pot place we really are in the scheme of things – we can have no influence on the climate full stop even if this stuff was a genuine concern – the earth is warming, the climate is changing only as it always has – keep up the good work, we still fighting the 1080 crap,
cheers Mary
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Obama says he still supports climate legislation

Jul 27

WASHINGTON (AP) – Despite setbacks on Capitol Hill, President Barack Obama said Tuesday he still supports the need for broad climate legislation. Speaking in the Rose Garden following a bipartisan meeting of congressional leaders, Obama said the energy bill making its way through Congress now is “an important step in the right direction.” But, he said, “I want to emphasize that it’s only the first step.” He pledged to keep pushing for passage of a comprehensive energy policy overhaul that addresses climate change.

“Our current energy policy is unsustainable,” Obama said.

Last week, Senate Democrats abandoned plans for a sweeping measure that would cap greenhouse gases blamed for global warming. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said no Republican senators were willing to vote for the bill, leaving Democrats shy of the 60 votes needed to overcome GOP delaying tactics.

Instead Democrats hope to pass a narrower bill that responds to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and takes steps to improve energy efficiency.

Obama also called on Congress to pass legislation that he says will help small businesses grow and hire again.

A measure pending in the Senate would create a new lending fund to help community banks offer loans. Obama urged lawmakers not to block the initiative.

Obama announced during his State of the Union address earlier this year that he planned to hold monthly bipartisan meetings with congressional leaders at the White House. Among those present Monday was House Minority Leader John Boehner, who has ratcheted up his criticism of Obama in recent weeks, accusing the president of stooping to partisan attacks and saying Obama cannot sell his economic plan.

Obama has argued that Boehner and Republicans are trying to advance the same agenda that led the country into the recession.

The president said he urged Senate Republicans to help fill federal judgeship vacancies. He said his nominees have been waiting up to eight months to be confirmed, even though they have received unanimous or nearly unanimous bipartisan support in the Senate Judiciary Committee.

He blamed “some in the minority” for using procedural tactics to delay the votes.

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