Newsletter No. 13 For 2010 From The NZ Climate Realists Against the ETS

Greetings Climate Realists.

Activists, Neil & Esther Henderson

The past fortnight has seen us buy another computer- with three teenagers on Correspondence School the one we had was being thrashed 16 hours of the day and we now have this wonderful thing called a ‘network’ set up for us.
We also have the not-so-wonderful attendant teething problems…..as we adjust to a new email system (Outlook), new computer operating system (hello Windows 7) and hope that not too many emails have fallen down the cracks.

If you have ordered bumper stickers or pamphlets and have not received them by the end of this week PLEASE send us another email– I discovered to my horror that a huge number of our regular correspondents have been suddenly dumped into the spam folder by Farmside- don’t ask me why- and this is emptied every two weeks so we may have lost something before I discovered the mistake.

Likewise, if you have emailed us with comments, interesting sites and suggestions, we don’t mind receiving things twice.

We still have bumper stickers and pamphlets available; many thanks to those of you who have taken the opportunity to distribute pamphlets around your area, or to give them to family and friends.

We have plenty more, please email us at doonhill@farmside.co.nz with your address and we’ll happy send them along.

There’s a lot of reading in this week’s newsletter, take your time!

I’ve also posted a large number of new articles on our website www.climaterealists.org.nz so if your contribution is not in the newsletter below it will be on the website.

Many thanks for your support, and keep those letters rolling to the Prime Minister!
All the best,
Neil and Esther

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John Boscawen continues to make his voice heard about the repercussions of the ETS.
or alternatively at
Also John’s  press release of 31st March:
Receiving ever increasing dividends from State-owned power companies – such as the $89.5m payout announced today by Meridian Energy – is something the Government will ‘have to get used to’ once the Emissions Trading Scheme comes into effect,………
Read the full release at:

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Federated Farmers media release:

New Zealand goes where 26 other global alliance members don’t

While Federated Farmers is restating its support for the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases, it’s also cautioning that New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) means the country is going where the other 26 nation members aren’t.

“Yes the world is fully behind New Zealand, in fact, they’re a long way behind us looking on while the New Zealand Government prods our farmers out into an ETS no mans land,” says Federated Farmers President, Don Nicolson.

“The ETS is a policy solution borne out of a disproportionate sense of environmental noblesse oblige.  We’re going where the 26 other members of the Global Research Alliance fear to tread – including agriculture in their respective ETS type responses.

“The New Zealand ETS is really an ‘efficiency transfer scheme’ as we’re giving away our competitive advantage to level a playing field that no other country is demanding of us.  It reflects what we think others around the world think of us and not what they actually do.

“Any ETS should stand for efficiency, technology and science and if the Global Research Alliance delivers that, then we’ll be over the moon.

“Yet the stakes for every New Zealander are incredibly high as the ETS is playing with economic fire.  What’s at stake is agriculture’s year-on-year multi-factor productivity increase of 1.8 percent in the past two decades.  That’s outstripped every other sector of the economy and contrasts sharply with last month’s fall in labour force productivity.

“The big difference is that agriculture contributes 64 percent of everything we sell to the rest of the world, which pays for our hospitals, our police and even, our politicians.  We seem to have forgotten that ruminant emissions are a natural gas so no emissions, no exports and frankly, no economy either.

“Our efficiency since 1990 means we are producing 7 percent more lamb but from 55 percent fewer sheep.  With beef, our meat volumes are up 23 percent but from 11 percent fewer cattle.  Meanwhile dairy production growth per cow has averaged 26 percent since 1990.

“This massive gain in farm productivity is New Zealand’s most under reported success story.  Farmers are that thin line of gumboots keeping New Zealand as a first world nation.

“But while the world wants a lot more from us, the ETS becomes another tax on agriculture at a time when our net profit has declined from 16.4 cents to 6.2 cents out of every farm gate dollar we earned New Zealand over the past season.

“As an industry we are committed to the four ‘P’s’ of production, productivity, progress and profit. Yet what’s our reward?  An ETS that skims yet more cream off our reduced bottom lines with the hope that the Global Alliance will deliver more than hot air,” Mr Nicolson concluded.

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Hello Neil,
Apparently half of NZ’s emissions are due to ruminants belching methane and these are being blamed on NZ farmers.
We are trying to get back to PRE 1990 levels are we not??
If total ruminant numbers in NZ have fallen by 12% over the last 18 years, and assuming that total belching / animal has remained unchanged,
then total methane production must also have fallen by 12%. If this was shown to be the case the Govt would have to reassess its direction, would it not?
Attached are two files from Meat & Wool NZ identifying the total number of sheep, cattle & dairy cows in NZ from 1990 to 2009 (19 yrs), on both a total numbers basis
and on a stock units basis. On a stock units basis the total animal SU’s have fallen by 12%.
It is time that the government was asked to justify ALL of its expenditure into methane reduction and its goal of taxing farmers for methane… a job for ACT’s Boscowan!
Regards
Murray
(If you would like to view the attachments mentioned above, email us at doonhill@darmside.co.nz and we’ll send them through)
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Hi folk,
Just saw on teletext that Gerry Brownlee has signed a  ‘co-operation agreement’ with Mexico in the field of renewable  green energy .
Who are these companies producing  clean green energy ? Are they actually producing , or are they companies that the government has thrown a few million at , but are not yet producing for commercial use ?  Sounds like more fast talking scientists who continue to accept our money , but cannot produce an acceptable product .
Best wishes ,
Malcolm

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Alan Sutherland Katikati and Te Puke Fruitgrowers Association magazine.

On my holiday early this year, I stopped in Bulls for a light meal and coffee.  The town has taken a humourous approach to marketing itself based around having fun.  The Fire Station is named “Extinguish-a-bull”, the police station has a “Const-a-bull”, the medical centre is “Cure-a-bull”, the information centre is “Inform-a-bull”, there is a “Veget-a-bull” shop and so on.  You can check out other labels at their website.  Quite “Laugh-a-bull”.  I would like to suggest one more.  “Glo-bull warming” – the main topic of my editorial in the Katikati and Te Puke Fruitgrowers Association magazine.

When I first heard about “warming”, it was couched in terms to suggest that Katikati would (in umpteen years) have a climate similar to Kerikeri (just part of natural climate change).  I didn’t find this scary, just interesting and in fact was looking forward to it.  Apparently, this message was supposed to be alarming.  So along came Al Gore with his movie (it is speculated that Al Gore has amongst the highest carbon footprint of anyone on this planet).  The film caused me to do some reading to understand the concept of “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming” for myself.  This  new concept is supported by a great deal of propaganda and very little truth – much the same as Al Gore’s movie, as it turned out (based on a British court judgement).  Disciples of CAGW exist in most Western developed countries and their job is to preach the religion.  In fact research funding now depends on the CAGW meme.  If you don’t believe in CAGW you will not be funded to do any research, and you will not get a job as the science advisor to the Prime Minister.  Nor would you find it worth your while to apply for the MAF position recently advertised – “International Policy/Senior Policy Analyst: Climate Change”.

Read the full editorial at:

http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/node/313

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In case anyone is getting complacent, articles such as the following urge us to keep up our efforts.
Congratulations and thanks to all those who have written to John Key regarding this issue over the last two weeks.
Key says government won’t suspend ETS
Andrea Deuchrass | Thursday April 1, 2010 – 03:20pm

Prime Minister John Key says New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme is still appropriate and suspending it until Australia takes action “would not be in New Zealand’s long-term interests.”

After almost a week of dodging questions after the National Business Review reported the government was under pressure to delay the scheme, a spokeswoman for Mr Key responded with written answers.

NBR understands nine leading business associations sent a joint letter to Mr Key in early March, concerned about:

  • The lack of an Australian scheme (after the ETS was designed to align with it)
  • Global inaction
  • That New Zealand’s ETS was too stringent in its all-sector approach
  • The lack of a liquid international carbon market
  • The little prospect of progress at the Mexico COP at the end of the year
  • Trade disadvantages once businesses enter the ETS in July

The letter was also sent to Bill English, Gerry Brownlee, Nick Smith, David Carter, Tim Groser and Rodney Hide.

Businesses wanted, among other things, the government to review the ETS before the end of the year, to make allocation rules better suited to New Zealand business conditions.

But today, Mr Key’s spin-doctor said the scheme was moderated in December 2009 to better suit New Zealand business conditions and would be subject to review in 2011.

Asked how he expected businesses to face a competitive disadvantage from July 1, the spin-doctor said the scheme was designed to ensure export-facing businesses are competitive and had a very small impact on them.

“While countries such as Australia and the USA have not passed substantial emissions trading legislation, they are moving to tackle the impacts of climate change within their own economies.”

The business umbrella also urged the government to:

  • Use discretion to help (exempt) trade-exposed businesses
  • Establish the equivalent of the Australian Climate Change Action Fund to assist businesses that don’t qualify for subsidies in the act
  • Phase out assistance to match trade competitors

The spokeswoman said the government was conscious New Zealand had to play its role in tackling climate change.

“This includes increased investment in science and research, which is evident in our hosting of the Global Research Alliance meeting in April.

“We have taken immediate steps to scale back the impacts of the ETS created under the former government, while also being aware of the need to balance our economic and environmental responsibilities.”

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Artic Sea Ice
This from Randall Hoven:
Well how about that?  The very months where we found the most apparent shrinkage were the months that are the most “difficult to interpret trends and anomalies” and where the error would tend to underestimate ice.

“This little Northern Hemisphere sea ice example captures so much of the climate change tempest in microcosm.


  • When presenting data, the “scientists” include an unexplained adjustment to the measured data.  In this case, the adjustments explain the entire evidence for Arctic ice cap shrinkage in winter months.
  • Measurement processes depend on computer algorithms with scant validation — “few papers were published that compare algorithms or compare results with validation data.”
  • Using only measured data, and all the data, there are no alarming trends.  Winter months show no ice cap shrinkage at all.  While there is shrinkage in summer months, that shrinkage is only evident in the last eight years, a time span too short to make a long-term conclusion, and in the months of least confidence in measurement techniques.
  • The data allow cherry-picking.  A Katie Couric, if she were cleverer, could say the Arctic ice cap shrank almost in half in the last three decades.  On the other hand, I could say it grew 6% in that time period.  We would both be telling the truth, by comparing cherry-picked months and years.


“And all this was only for the north polar ice cap.  The south one was more obviously growing over the last three decades.  The Katie Courics of the world completely ignore that one.”

Read the complete article at:

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TIA DAILY: March 30, 2010
GOOD FRIDAY. This issue is all worth reading. Mostly bad news with some good – nos. 2,5 & 6 in particular. News and opinion you won’t get quite the same, if at all, in your daily paper.
Last Saturday was “Earth Hour.” I switched on all my house lights in the name of progress. From darkness, to candles and oil lamps, to electricity, at 8.30pm for one hour.
Don
TIA Daily is a bit long to reprint here. Read it on our website at:
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Dear all,
Bob Kay’s latest is below.
Here is the US Senate Minority Report referred to in the article:
Watch Senator James Inhofe in action at the release of this report:
3 cheers
Phil H

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Hi —  Rajendra Pachauri appears unaware that fraud is generally defined in the law as an intentional misrepresentation of material existing fact made by one person to another with knowledge of its falsity and for the purpose of inducing the other person to act, and upon which the other person relies with resulting injury or damage.  Fraud may also occur by omitting or purposefully failing to disclose material facts, which make other representations misleading.  Fraud is a criminal offence.   —  Bob.
Read Guardian article: Rajendra Pachauri: Climate scientists face ‘new form of persecution’
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Hi —  Just more evidence that rising CO2 levels don’t cause any unusual changes in the natural climate.  When will the UN’s IPCC grasp this inconvenient truth?  —  Bob.
The Independant,” London, 30 March 2010 —  Tom Peck  —  Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, according to scientists who have used satellites to monitor changes in the height of the sea.
The stream brings heat northwards from the tropics and is a key factor in the climate of western Europe. Some models of climate change predict a slow down. Although the scientists, from Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, noticed dramatic short-term variability, there was no longer-term trend, they said. In fact since 1993 the overall levels of flow looks to have increased.
“The changes we’re seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural cycle,” said Josh Willis from JPL. “The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling.”
Between 2002 and 2009, the team says, there was no trend discernible, just a lot of variability on short timescales.
The research is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
The stream forms part of a larger movement of water, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is itself one component of the global large scale ocean circulation.
The first observations suggesting that the AMOC was slowing down emerged in 2005, in research from the UK’s National Oceanography Centre. At this time scientists suggested the volume of cold water returning southwards could have fallen by as much as 30 per cent in half a century – a significant decline.
However, later observations by the same team showed that the strength of the flow varied hugely on short timescales – from one season to the next, or even shorter. They have since not found any clear trend since 2004.
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Job Vacancy: International Policy/Senior Policy Analyst: Climate Change

MAF are advertising for someone to fill this role; this is what they are requiring in terms of key skills. I have added a few extra skills in italics based on my experience dealing with people who make a living in the climate change and/ or sustainability business and in my dealings with MAF senior policy analysts.

Strong analytical skills, preferably including experience in numerical analysis. (This is important because you will be dealing with made up numbers that have been adjusted several times and don’t make any sense)

A background in climate change and/or sustainability preferred. (A closed mind on climate change an advantage, true believers only. People with the ability to think for themselves need not apply)

Degree in science, environment or another relevant field (There won’t be much real science involved, a relevant qualification in propaganda will be fine)

Interest in the agriculture and forestry sectors (and a desire to cripple agriculture)

Strong team player. (it is important that we stick together and make sure our stories match)

Able to deal with multiple and competing priorities (the truth versus the official policy of MAF and the Government for a start.)

Works well under stress (especially important for trying to explain how livestock cause global warming when they do not alter the composition of the atmosphere at all. If you have experience telling lies or pulling the wool over people’s eyes that will help))

Confident at speaking in public (especially bullshit)

Excellent at written skills (as above)

Highly motivated (to talk bull shit, cripple agriculture, make money out of good hard working people who unlike yourself are productive)

If you think this is you and you and you are prepared to prostitute your science and want to be part of a multi billion dollar industry send your cv to MAF and good luck.  

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Farm Impact Statements:
We continue to ask for more farm impact statements- many thanks to those who have already sent theirs in.
The more the better! Since John Boscawen is making this his ‘issue’ for the next few months we would like to provide him with all the ammunition possible.
Please note that the carbon calculator at the  carbon farming website listed below is as reliable as it is possible to be given that a number of variables (eg intensity) have not been definitively worked out by anyone. Federated Farmers, Meat and Wool NZ (now Beef and Lamb),  and the Ministry of Agriculture are all unable to provide any really definite and finally conclusive formulae but the carbon farming site provides a figure which is definitely in the right ‘ballpark’ as they say.
If anyone would like to do a farm impact statement but is unsure about working out their figures, send us your livestock numbers and types (eg dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, deer) we can work the numbers out for you and send them back to you. There’s no need to break your animal numbers down into classes (eg weaners, yearlings etc).
Please copy and paste the following message to every farmer you know:
To all farmers,
The ETS legislation WILL affect you- as of July this year when electricity rises by 5% and fuel prices rise by around 3c/litre. (These rises are capped until the end of 2012 at which time they will go to the open market price which at present is double that)
The legislation will affect you even more in 2015 when agriculture is brought into the scheme.
Do you have any idea what it will cost you?
Do you know how to calculate this?
There appears to be no clear way at this stage to work out a single definite figure of your costs, due to all the variables, eg carbon price, intensity etc but the carbon calculator at http://www.carbonfarming.org.nz/calculators.php will help give you an idea.
Act MP John Boscawen is deeply concerned about the ETS and the impact it will have on New Zealand’s economy.
He would like to present in Parliament a selection of ‘farm impact statements’ from New Zealand farmers who are prepared to stand up and be counted against this legislation.
We are asking you to provide us with the following details:
*A brief background of your farm- type, size, history (eg family farm for x years)
*The ETS costs involved for you (as far as you are able to tell- use the carbon calculator above)
*The impact these costs will have on you, your family, your farming operation
*The flow-on affects these costs will have to your community, your livestock firms, your trucking companies, your fertiliser companies etc etc.
NOTE: Before John reads something out in Parliament, or tables something that identifies the person, we need their permission for him to do so.
If you are happy for John to identify you in Parliament, please email your farm impact statement to us at doonhill@farmside.co.nz as soon as you are able!
John Boscawen would like to read one of these out every day. He will table whatever he is not given the opportunity to read…….
WE ARE CONTINUING TO LOBBY FOR A TWO YEAR DELAY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ETS.
Your help would be very much appreciated. Please circulate this widely among the farming community.
Statements may be emailed to us at doonhill@farmside.co.nz
This entry was posted in Global Warming Hoax, New Zealand, NZ Climate Realists Against The ETS. Bookmark the permalink.

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